Track & Analyze the Impact of External Factors on Your Demand
Your business is affected by many external factors that impact your demand forecasts. For example, a mild winter or new legislation could mean an unexpected inflection in sales. Unfortunately, traditional forecasting methods often fail to account for external unexpected changes in sales patterns.
At Arkieva, we understand that your business doesn’t operate in isolation – unaffected by macroeconomic indicators. The Arkieva Causal Forecasting Analysis solution goes beyond traditional and internal forecasting factors by considering external macroeconomic indicators that are relevant to your business. Create a measurable, pain-free macroeconomic forecasting process to stay ahead of the curve.
Match your internal metrics with the data in our data pool and save time discovering underlying trends influencing your business cycles. Define correlations for improving your demand planning practices.
Advanced predictive analytics help you reveal which indicators are relevant for your business. Using intuitive algorithms, the Arkieva Causal Forecasting solution helps you save money and time by delivering better forecasting models.
Adjust short-term sales forecasts, raw materials procurement, production plans and distribution plans to meet changing market conditions.
Match your internal metrics with macroeconomic indicators and save time discovering underlying trends and correlations influencing your business.
Improve forecast accuracy with a reduction in forecasting errors by analyzing all demand drivers.
Adjust forecasts based on weather changes and natural calamities. Easily quantify the impact of weather on your sales and manage the financial impact of changing weather conditions.
Gain insight into how promotions and events affect your sales to ensure the best ROI.
Determine the best-fit forecasting method by factoring in all leading indicators or external factors using the causal forecasting solution at any data hierarchy or aggregation level.
To help you easily include external macroeconomic factors into your demand planning process, our causal forecasting solution implementation methodology follows three distinct steps to ensure success.
The Arkieva Macroeconomic forecasting process starts off with a data cleanse that removes all promotional effects, seasonality, and events (acquisitions, mergers). After the cleanse, the data is processed using the Arkieva Causal Forecasting solution.
During the pilot or follow-up period, we focus on gaining a better understanding of the selected subset of indicators to get a deeper notion of their behavior and future evolution. To accomplish this we build what-if scenarios for analyzing different outcomes, then validate and benchmark the leading indicator forecasts with current forecasting methods and market intelligence
After the initial pilot phase of paying close attention to the pattern the indicators follow, we are now ready to go live. Discover an improved demand planning process with integrated microeconomic indicators. Easily monitor, update and receive change notifications.
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